分析师预计 Nvidia 2025 年收入将增长 110%，2026 年将增长 41%，2027 年将增长 1...

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ergey
@Sergey_Opl
·
9月18日
$NVDA is currently the most successful chipmaker.

Nvidia has risen nearly +133% YTD and +690% since the start of 2023.

Is it overvalued? Should you invest now?

Let’s examine the valuation, revenue growth rate by segments, profitability, and expenses. A short 🧵👇
Sergey
@Sergey_Opl
$NVDA Nvidia is currently trading at a Forward P/E multiple of 34.4, below the average of 38.25. At the beginning of 2024, the Forward P/E multiple was 23, having increased by 48% to the current level.

Analysts expect revenue growth of 110% in 2025, 41% in 2026, and 18% in 2027.

Calculating the PEG ratio based on the 2025 revenue growth of 41%, the PEG stands at 0.8, which is considered reasonable if the company can meet analysts' expectations.
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翻译自 英语
$NVDA Nvidia 目前的预期市盈率为 34.4，低于 38.25 的平均水平。2024 年初，预期市盈率为 23，已上涨 48% 至当前水平。

分析师预计 2025 年收入将增长 110%，2026 年将增长 41%，2027 年将增长 18%。

以 2025 年 41% 的收入增长率计算 PEG 比率，PEG 为 0.8，如果公司能够满足分析师的预期，这被认为是合理的。
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下午8:33 · 2024年9月18日
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This is a part of the reasons why $NVDA is up 4% today.

Trump advised by Elon would be more likely to push for AI infra investments.

$NVDA $TSLA
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这是$NVDA今日上涨4%的原因之一。

在埃隆的建议下，特朗普更有可能推动人工智能基础设施投资。

$NVDA $TSLA

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$NVDA got the move we were looking for after closing above the descending channel top.With today’s close above 143.71 (a key level), I’d like to see this area hold as support, setting up the next leg toward the 154.98 channel top.

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$NVDA在收于下降通道顶部之后，出现了我们期望的走势。由于今日收盘价高于 143.71（关键水平），我希望看到该区域保持支撑，为下一阶段迈向 154.98 通道顶部奠定基础。



















上次编辑上午7:57 · 2024年11月7日
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$NVDA PT Raised to $185 at UBS

Amid investor expectations that moved up in recent weeks, we remain bullish here and see NVDA delivering strong enough results and guidance to keep the stock moving higher and raise our estimates and PT yet again to $185. Our customer discussions and supply chain work lead us to conclude FQ3 (Oct) revenue is likely in the $34.5-35B range with FQ4 (Jan) guidance of ~$37B with upside to ~$39B once NVDA actually reports FQ4 in early 2025.
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翻译自 英语
$NVDA瑞银将 PT 上调至 185 美元

在最近几周投资者预期不断上升的情况下，我们仍然看好该股，并认为 NVDA 的业绩和指引足够强劲，可保持股价走高，并将我们的预期和目标价再次上调至 185 美元。通过与客户的讨论和供应链工作，我们得出结论，FQ3（10 月）的收入可能在 345-350 亿美元之间，FQ4（1 月）的指引约为 370 亿美元，一旦 NVDA 在 2025 年初实际报告 FQ4，则有望上涨至约 390 亿美元。

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$NVDA Elevating NVDA to Top Large-Cap Pick; A Must-Own for the Blackwell Ramp - Piper

With this preview, we are making NVDA our top large-cap pick given the company’s dominant positioning in AI accelerators and the upcoming launch of the Blackwell architecture. Our viewpoint is rooted in the belief that the overall TAM for AI accelerators will continue to rise in 2025 by ~$70 billion, and we see NVDA well positioned to capture most of the incremental TAM increase while ceding only a small bit to its merchant chip competitors. In terms of other gainers, we only see AVGO as making further incremental progress in this market. On NVDA’s Q3, our bull case projects a beat of roughly $1.3 billion in revenues for the October quarter and a beat of around $1.5 billion in a greatly supplyconstrained January quarter. Management is likely to make comments about extremely strong demand for H200 as well as both the Blackwell & Grace Blackwell. PT to $175.
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$NVDA将 NVDA 提升为顶级大盘股选择；Blackwell Ramp 的必备之选 - Piper

鉴于 NVDA 在 AI 加速器领域的主导地位以及即将推出的 Blackwell 架构，我们将 NVDA 作为我们的首选大盘股。我们的观点基于这样的信念：AI 加速器的整体 TAM 将在 2025 年继续增长约 700 亿美元，并且我们认为 NVDA 处于有利地位，能够获得大部分增量 TAM 增长，同时仅向其商用芯片竞争对手让出一小部分。就其他赢家而言，我们认为只有 AVGO 在这个市场上取得了进一步的增量进展。对于 NVDA 的第三季度，我们的看涨预测是 10 月季度的收入将超过约 13 亿美元，而供应严重受限的一月季度的收入将超过约 15 亿美元。管理层可能会对 H200 以及 Blackwell 和 Grace Blackwell 的极强需求发表评论。PT 至 175 美元。

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BREAKING: Amazon $AMZN is in talks with $IBM on a 5-year, $475M deal that would give them access to Nvidia $NVDA GPUs via AWS.

Essentially, IBM would be renting the GPU compute from Amazon’s web services over 5 years without needing to actually buy the GPUs from Nvidia.

This is why Nvidia continues to have demand.

The hyperscalers are loading up on GPUs and then renting it out to all their cloud clients to run AI workloads. Many of this clients sre small companies but when it comes to $IBM, they can afford to pay much more to access these GPUs.

The only reason $IBM is paying this much is because they see an ROI in their business from having more AI workloads.

As the use-cases continue, more and more of the hyperscalers should be able to leverage the massive amount of GPUs they have & $NVDA should be able to keep demand strong.
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突发消息：亚马逊$AMZN正在与$IBM就一项为期 5 年、价值 4.75 亿美元的交易进行谈判，该交易将使他们能够通过 AWS 使用 Nvidia $NVDA GPU。

本质上，IBM 将在 5 年内从亚马逊的网络服务租用 GPU 计算能力，而无需真正从 Nvidia 购买 GPU。

这就是 Nvidia 持续受到需求的原因。

超大规模企业正在大量购买 GPU，然后将其出租给所有云客户以运行 AI 工作负载。这些客户中有许多是小公司，但就$IBM而言，他们可以支付更多费用来使用这些 GPU。

$IBM支付这么多钱的唯一原因是因为他们看到更多的 AI 工作负载能给他们的业务带来投资回报。

随着用例的不断增加，越来越多的超大规模计算企业应该能够利用他们拥有的大量 GPU，并且$NVDA应该能够保持强劲的需求。

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Another day of consolidation for #NVIDIA. When it breaks out of this range, expect a decent move.

For tomorrow: watch for a dip-buying opportunity at 143.39, with a target back to 149.77.

Alternatively, if NVDA breaks above 149.77 (raised from 148.88), watch for a push to 152 and possibly the upper 150s within 3-5 days.
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翻译自 英语
#NVIDIA又迎来了盘整的一天。当突破这一范围时，预计会出现不错的走势。

明天：关注 143.39 的逢低买入机会，目标回到 149.77。

或者，如果 NVDA 突破 149.77（从 148.88 上涨），则观察 3-5 天内上涨至 152 甚至 150 上方。

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$NVDA  - Jefferies Raised PT to $185
- Street estimates for next year are rising, with revenue expectations starting at $200B and EPS between $5 and $6.
- Many of these estimates likely overestimate ASPs due to the misconception that NVDA would sell entire GB200 NVL racks.
- NVDA's 6M GPU unit forecast translates to DC revenue of $180-200B, lower than buyside expectations of $205-215B.
- October is expected to show a $2B beat, with $34B in revenue ($1.5B above guidance and $1B above consensus), followed by another strong January beat at $38.1B (vs. $36.6B consensus).
- Blackwell ramp is accelerating, with ~$4B in Q3 revenue projected to grow to $9B in Q4.
- Hopper GPUs are also growing, with revenue expected to increase from $1.8B in Q3 to $4.2B in Q4, alongside gains in H20.
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翻译自 英语
$NVDA - Jefferies 将目标价上调至 185 美元
- 华尔街对明年的预测正在上升，预计收入将达到 2000 亿美元，每股收益将在 5 至 6 美元之间。
- 由于误以为 NVDA 会销售整个 GB200 NVL 机架，许多此类估值可能高估了 ASP。
- NVDA 对 600 万 GPU 单元的预测意味着 DC 收入为 1800-2000 亿美元，低于买方预期的 2050-2150 亿美元。
- 预计 10 月份的销售额将超出预期，达到 340 2B美元（比预期高出 15 亿美元，比市场普遍预期高出 10 亿美元），1 月份的销售额将再次强劲超出预期，达到 381 亿美元（市场普遍预期为 366 亿美元）。
- Blackwell 业务增长速度正在加快，预计第三季度收入约为 40 亿美元，第四季度将增长至 90 亿美元。
- Hopper GPU 也在增长，预计收入将从第三季度的 18 亿美元增至第四季度的 4. 2B ，同时 H20 也将实现增长。

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$NVDA Preview – Better but Let’s Not Get Crazy: PT Raised to $185 at Jefferies

We expect a similar story to the last several quarters with a beat and raise in the $2B range. While expectations continue to creep higher, we do believe the stock continues to work as we are in the heart of the Blackwell ramp. All commentary from hyperscale customers remains bullish, with GPU supply still a primary constraint for cloud revenue growth. Blackwell is starting to ramp, with a “few billion” this quarter and further growth with small volumes of the GB200 layering in next quarter. Hopper is still growing during the early stages of this transition as prior deployments are filled out. We raise our estimates to reflect our updated expectations for the Blackwell ramp (more details below). We have seen Street estimates for next year continue to rise, with $200B of revenue/$5 of EPS generally being viewed as the low end of expectations and some reaching as high as $6 of EPS. While we are very positive on the unit upside, we would highlight that many of these estimates may be baking too aggressive ASPs (leftover from the misconception that NVDA would be selling entire racks for the GB200 NVL). Our roughly 6M GPU units equate to DC revenue closer to $180-200M vs buyside expectations in the $205-215B range.

We expect a $2B beat for October (we model $34B, $1.5B above guide of $32.5B and $1B above St. $33B) and a similar beat in January (we model $38.1B vs. St. $36.6B). We believe Blackwell should be ramping well (we see ~$4B in Blackwell revenue in Q3) and should continue to accelerate into Q4 (we model $9B of Blackwell in Q4). We expect to see continued growth in Hopper, even during the early stages of this transition as well as growth in the H20 ($1.8B in Q3 going to $4.2B in Q4). We also updated our AI Accelerator Model to reflect our updated NVDA estimates.
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$NVDA预览 – 情况好转但不要疯狂：Jefferies 将 PT 上调至 185 美元

我们预计，与过去几个季度的情况类似，业绩超出预期，并在 $ 2B范围内上涨。尽管预期继续攀升，但我们确实相信该股将继续表现良好，因为我们正处于 Blackwell 增长的核心。超大规模客户的所有评论仍然看涨，GPU 供应仍然是云收入增长的主要制约因素。Blackwell 开始增长，本季度有“几十亿美元”，下个季度 GB200 的少量分层将进一步增长。Hopper 在这一过渡的早期阶段仍在增长，因为之前的部署已经完成。我们提高了我们的估计值，以反映我们对 Blackwell 增长的最新预期（详情如下）。我们已经看到华尔街对明年的预测继续上升，2000 亿美元的收入/5 美元的每股收益通常被视为预期的低端，有些甚至高达 6 美元的每股收益。虽然我们对单位数量的增长持非常乐观的态度，但我们要强调的是，这些估计中的许多可能都过于激进了（因为人们误以为 NVDA 会销售整个 GB200 NVL 机架）。我们的大约 600 万个 GPU 单元相当于 DC 收入接近 1.8 亿至 2 亿美元，而买方预期在 2050 亿至 2150 亿美元范围内。

我们预计 10 月份的销售额将2B （我们预测为 340 亿美元，比预期的 325 亿美元高出 15 亿美元，比预期的 330 亿美元高出 10 亿美元），1 月份的销售额也将超过预期（我们预测为 381 亿美元，而预期为 366 亿美元）。我们认为 Blackwell 应该会稳步增长（我们预计 Blackwell 第三季度的营收约为 40 亿美元），并且应该会继续加速到第四季度（我们预测 Blackwell 在第四季度的营收为 90 亿美元）。我们预计 Hopper 将继续增长，即使在这一转型的早期阶段也是如此，H20 也将增长（第三季度的 18 亿美元将在第四季度达到 4. 2B ）。我们还更新了我们的 AI 加速器模型，以反映我们更新的 NVDA 估计值。

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Elon Musk’s xAI is raising up to $6 billion at a $50 billion valuation, according to CNBC’s David Faber. The money will likely be used to acquire 100,000 Nvidia chips.

Note that Elon said in June about 300k B200s with CX8 networking in summer 2025. $NVDA
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据 CNBC 的 David Faber 报道，埃隆·马斯克的 xAI 正在以 500 亿美元的估值筹集高达 60 亿美元的资金。这笔钱可能会用于购买 10 万块 Nvidia 芯片。

请注意，Elon 在 6 月份曾表示，2025 年夏季将有 30 万辆 B200 配备 CX8 网络。 $NVDA