Bitcoin could retreat to $42K post-halving, JPMorgan warns

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Bitcoin could retreat to $42K post-halving, JPMorgan warns
[size=0.875][color=var(--sa-text-color-2)]Mar. 04, 2024 2:16 PM ET[color=var(--sa-text-color-1)]Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) Crypto[color=var(--sa-text-color-2)][color=var(--sa-text-color-2)]RIOT, [color=var(--sa-text-color-2)]HIVE, [color=var(--sa-text-color-2)]MARA, [color=var(--sa-text-color-2)]BTCM, [color=var(--sa-text-color-2)]CLSK, [color=var(--sa-text-color-2)]HUT, [color=var(--sa-text-color-2)]BTBT, [color=var(--sa-text-color-2)]BITFBy: [color=var(--sa-text-color-1)]Max Gottlich, SA News Editor[color=var(--sa-text-color-1)][size=0.875]50 Comments

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[size=1.125]The highly-anticipated bitcoin ([color=var(--sa-link-color)]BTC-USD) halving event in April is poised to negatively impact bitcoin miners' profitability given reduced rewards and higher production costs, JPMorgan said in a recent note, cautioning that bitcoin, in turn, could slide to $42K.

[size=1.125]That would be a ~37% drop from current prices, with BTC changing hands at $66.6K at the time of writing.

[size=1.125]Historically, the bitcoin ([color=var(--sa-link-color)]BTC-USD) production cost has acted as a lower bound for the underlying token's price. The central point of JPMorgan's estimated production cost range stood at $26.5K, which then would double to $53K post-halving.

[size=1.125]Analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou estimated a 20% decline its the bitcoin ([color=var(--sa-link-color)]BTC-USD) network's hashrate after the halving, a move that would reduce the BTC estimated production cost and the underlying price.

[size=1.125]“This $42k estimate is also the level we envisage bitcoin prices drifting towards once bitcoin-halving-induced euphoria subsides after April,” the Thursday note said.

[size=1.125]What does this mean for bitcoin ([color=var(--sa-link-color)]BTC-USD) miners? Miners "with below average electricity costs and more efficient rigs are likely to survive while those with high production costs would struggle.”

[size=1.125]Publicly-traded BTC miners: Riot Platforms ([color=var(--sa-link-color)]RIOT), Marathon Digital ([color=var(--sa-link-color)]MARA), HIVE Digital ([color=var(--sa-link-color)]HIVE), BIT Mining ([color=var(--sa-link-color)]BTCM), Hut 8 ([color=var(--sa-link-color)]HUT), Bitfarms ([color=var(--sa-link-color)]BITF), Bit Digital ([color=var(--sa-link-color)]BTBT), CleanSpark ([color=var(--sa-link-color)]CLSK).

[size=1.125]SA analyst Mike Fay recently [color=var(--sa-link-color)]laid out a Hold recommendation on CleanSpark ([color=var(--sa-link-color)]CLSK) stock, which surged some 520% from a year ago. Though the company has maintained high BTC production levels while boosting its BTC reserve before the halving, its "breakeven price has increased significantly and it's only going to get more difficult in the second half of this year when the block subsidy declines."

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摩根大通(JPMorgan)在最近的一份报告中表示，由于奖励减少和生产成本上升，4月份备受期待的比特币(BTC-USD)减半事件将对比特币矿工的盈利能力产生负面影响，并警告称，比特币可能会跌至4.2万美元。


这将比目前的价格下跌约37%，在撰写本文时，BTC的转手价格为6.66万美元。


从历史上看，比特币(BTC-USD)的生产成本一直是基础代币价格的下限。摩根大通估计的生产成本范围的中心点为2.65万美元，减半后将翻倍至5.3万美元。


分析师Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou估计，减半后比特币(BTC- usd)网络的算力将下降20%，此举将降低BTC的估计生产成本和基础价格。


周四的报告称:“这一4.2万美元的估计也是我们设想的，一旦比特币减半引发的乐观情绪在4月后消退，比特币价格就会朝着这个水平浮动。


”这对比特币(BTC-USD)矿工来说意味着什么?“电力成本低于平均水平、钻机效率更高的矿商可能会生存下来，而那些生产成本高的矿商则会陷入困境。


”公开交易的比特币矿商:Riot Platforms (Riot)、Marathon Digital (MARA)、HIVE Digital (HIVE)、BIT Mining (BTCM)、Hut 8 (Hut)、Bitfarms (BITF)、BIT Digital (bt)、CleanSpark (CLSK)。


SA分析师迈克•费伊最近对CleanSpark的股票给出了“持有”建议，该股较上年同期飙升了约520%。虽然在减半之前，该公司一直保持着较高的比特币生产水平，并增加了比特币储备，但“盈亏平衡价格大幅上涨，如果今年下半年区块补贴减少，情况将更加困难。”