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发表于 2025-3-3 12:07:53
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$NVDA (-7% YTD through 2/28) gross margin guidance last week was yet another disappointing Mag7 (-6% YTD on average) report. But the bigger problem for me was the revenue miss by $CRM. They are the software poster child for agentic AI vendors that are supposed to benefit from all the AI capex spending by the hardware vendors. Ultimately, ROI on AI industry capex is necessary.
Bigger picture, six of the seven Magnificent 7 companies had revenue estimates revised lower for CQ1:2025 when reporting CQ4:2024 results.
And finally, at the highest level, there is still no “killer app” yet for consumers for either the PC or smartphone. This is necessary to drive inference capex demand at the levels necessary to replace the historical capex growth driven by pre-training which are slowing down dramatically. When the largest models are now being already trained on all the appropriate data on the internet, the growth will slow.
While a multitude of companies are all investing at very high levels in the belief that they will be AI winners, eventually it will coalesce down to a few winners much like following the internet build in the late 1990s. AI industry capex budgets guidance slowing to mid-single digit sequential growth for the first couple of quarters in 2025 from mid-teens sequential growth during 2024 is potentially a sign that this is already occurring.
From a stock market perspective, while I expect the bounce on Friday from near oversold conditions at their worst levels intra-day could continue near-term, I still expect an AI digestion phase by mid-year.
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翻译自 英语
$NVDA (-7 % 截至 2/28 的年初至今) 上周的毛利率指引又是一份令人失望的 Mag7 (-6 % 年初至今平均) 报告。但对我来说，更大的问题是$CRM的收入未达标。他们是代理 AI 供应商的软件典范，这些供应商应该从硬件供应商的所有 AI 资本支出中受益。最终，AI 行业资本支出的投资回报率是必要的。
总体来看，在公布 2024 年第四季度业绩时，七大“七巨头”中有六家下调了 2025 年第一季度的收入预期。
最后，从最高层面来看，目前还没有为 PC 或智能手机消费者推出的“杀手级应用”。这对于推动推理资本支出需求达到必要的水平是必要的，以取代由预训练推动的历史资本支出增长，而预训练的增长正在急剧放缓。当最大的模型现在已经在互联网上所有适当的数据上进行训练时，增长将会放缓。
尽管许多公司都投入大量资金，相信自己将成为人工智能的赢家，但最终赢家会集中在少数几家，就像 1990 年代后期互联网的发展一样。人工智能行业资本支出预算指引将从 2024 年的中位数环比增长放缓至 2025 年前几个季度的中个位数环比增长，这可能表明这种情况已经发生。
从股市的角度来看，虽然我预计周五从盘中最糟糕的超卖状态反弹可能会持续一段时间，但我仍然预计到年中将出现人工智能消化阶段。 |
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