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发表于 2024-10-10 14:05:15
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$AMZN JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight
We are upgrading Amazon to Overweight (from Neutral) today. The firm has boasted improved FCF, consistent debt repayment, and impressive AWS growth over the last year. Further, it continues to benefit from a resilient e-commerce market despite softening in discretionary categories. We argue that the AWS Cloud revenue growth is arguably the firm’s most important metric and expect that to continue. While spreads are admittedly tight, like the rest of the market, we see this as the best risk/reward in large-cap Software and mega-cap Tech spreads at present. Unlike Amazon’s peers, we see aggressive uses of the balance sheet for capital returns and/or M&A as unlikely, and argue that it carries lower geopolitical and consumer demand risks than high-quality peers like Apple. We see the firm’s current battle with the FTC as relatively limited in scope, and view regulatory risks as more significant for peers Alphabet and Meta. Risks to our rating include rising interest in high-cost sports rights, elevated capex to limit FCF growth, or the exploration of re-leveraging M&A. PT $230
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$AMZN摩根大通将评级上调至增持
今天,我们将亚马逊的评级从中性上调至增持。该公司在过去一年中,自由现金流有所改善,债务偿还稳定,AWS 增长令人印象深刻。此外,尽管非必需品类别有所疲软,但该公司仍继续受益于弹性电子商务市场。我们认为,AWS 云收入增长可以说是该公司最重要的指标,并预计这一趋势将持续下去。虽然与其他市场一样,利差确实很紧,但我们认为这是目前大型软件和超大型科技利差中最佳的风险/回报。与亚马逊的同行不同,我们认为不太可能大举利用资产负债表来获得资本回报和/或并购,并认为它比苹果等优质同行的地缘政治和消费者需求风险更低。我们认为该公司目前与联邦贸易委员会的斗争范围相对有限,并认为同行 Alphabet 和 Meta 面临的监管风险更大。我们评级面临的风险包括对高成本体育转播权的兴趣日益增加、资本支出增加限制了自由现金流的增长,或探索重新利用并购。预期市盈率 230 美元 |
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