|
楼主 |
发表于 2024-9-19 13:39:36
|
显示全部楼层
he Fed faces a finely balanced set of considerations over whether to cut by 25 or 50 basis points at its meeting that begins today.
The case for 50 comes down to what Fed officials call risk management but what might be thought of as regret minimization. Per former Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan, if you cut 50 here and you think the Fed will need to cut again after that, you are unlikely to regret such a cut even if the economy chugs along between now and your next meeting. But if you cut 25 and things worsen a lot in the coming weeks, you'll feel bigger regret as you'll be behind the curve.
The case for 25 boils down to some combination of 1) process issues (i.e., 50 will signal something more urgent; there's an election soon; communications were not explicit enough about 50 in the run-up to this meeting), 2) a view that the economy is doing just fine and will continue to do so with more gradual reductions, and 3) that because financial conditions are easy (in part because markets expect the Fed to deliver a string of cuts), igniting risk assets could make it harder to finish the inflation fight.
There is a gift link to the full article here:
https://wsj.com/economy/central- ... pwebshare_permalink
由
翻译自 英语
美联储在今天开始的会议上面临着是否降息 25 个还是 50 个基点的一系列微妙的考虑。
降息 50% 的理由归结于美联储官员所谓的风险管理,但这可能被认为是后悔最小化。根据前达拉斯联储主席罗布·卡普兰的说法,如果你现在降息 50%,并且你认为美联储之后需要再次降息,那么即使从现在到下次会议期间经济状况良好,你也不太可能后悔降息。但如果你降息 25%,而未来几周情况恶化很多,你会感到更后悔,因为你已经落后了。
支持 25 的理由可以归结为以下几点:1)程序问题(即 50 将发出更紧急的信号;很快就有选举;在这次会议前夕关于 50 的沟通不够明确);2)认为经济运行良好并将通过更加渐进的削减继续保持良好状态;以及3)由于金融环境宽松(部分原因是市场预期美联储将推出一系列降息措施),引发风险资产可能会使完成通胀斗争变得更加困难。 |
|