The outlook for NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) for the next fiscal year is the main topic of this article. NVIDIA will have faster top-line and positive bottom-line growth in the next year, and the share price of NVIDIA has a lot of room to go up. This is why I think you should buy NVIDIA stock.
Key Numbers To KnowThe key numbers for NVIDIA Corporation, such as its recent Q3 FY 2023 revenue and forward-looking top-line guidance for Q4 FY 2023, were satisfactory and mostly in line with what the market expected.
According to NVDA’s press release on its Q3 FY 2023 financial results, the company made $5,931 million in the most recent quarter. This is a -12% drop from the previous quarter. In particular, a 1% quarter-over-quarter increase in sales from the data centre market was more than cancelled out by a -23% QoQ drop in sales from the gaming market. Still, NVIDIA’s actual revenue for the third quarter was +2% higher than the market’s consensus estimate of $5.82 billion.
As part of its earnings report for the third quarter, NVIDIA gave a midpoint revenue forecast of $6 billion for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2023. This means that NVIDIA’s top line will go up by 1% quarter-over-quarter and down by 21% year-over-year in the last quarter of the current fiscal year. More importantly, the company’s top-line guidance for the fourth quarter was only slightly (-1%, according to data from S&P Capital IQ) lower than what analysts had predicted as a whole before the most recent quarterly report.
Two weeks after NVIDIA announced its Q3 FY 2023 financial results on November 16, 2022, its shares did better than the S&P 500’s (+1.7%). This supports my belief that the company’s top line and revenue guidance for the third and fourth quarters were better than investors expected.
What Are The Catalysts To Watch For?Investors will be looking for things that could cause NVIDIA’s shares to change prices in the future. In this section, I list a few things that could cause NVIDIA Corporation’s rating to change in the next fiscal year.
The first thing that could be a catalyst is when the gaming segment starts making money again, and channel inventories return to normal. Two quarters in a row, between Q2 FY 2023 and Q3 FY 2023, sales in NVIDIA’s gaming segment went down, but there are signs that things are improving.
The gaming division of NVIDIA could have done better in Q3 FY 2023, but it did better than the market expected. In the most recent quarter, NVIDIA’s gaming segment revenue dropped 23% from the previous quarter and 51% from the prior year to $1,574 million. According to data from S&P Capital IQ, the sell-side expected the company’s gaming segment to drop by 30% and 56% from the previous quarter and year, respectively.
NVIDIA also said in its Q3 FY 2023 earnings call that “channel inventories (for the gaming segment) are on track to approach normal levels as we exit Q4 (of fiscal 2023).” NVIDIA also said, “We expect to resume sequential growth (in Q4 FY 2023) with our (gaming) revenue still falling short of end demand as we work through the channel inventory correction.”
The second thing that could help is if NVIDIA’s strategy for selling alternative products to Chinese data centres keeps working well.
The data centre segment of NVIDIA’s business grew by 31% year over year and 1% quarter over quarter in the most recent quarter. Based on data from S&P Capital IQ, this was better than the +27% YoY and -2% QoQ growth that analysts expected for the top line of the data centre segment as a whole.
On August 31, 2022, NVIDIA said that the US government had “imposed a new licence requirement, effective immediately, for any future export to China” for its “A100 and upcoming H100 integrated circuits.” Wall Street analysts were worried about NVDA’s Q3 FY 2023 data centre segment performance because they thought new restrictions on Chinese clients would cause a significant drop in NVDA’s data centre revenue.
But NVIDIA has found a way around the new rules set by the US government. NVDA said during its recent third-quarter investor call that it has been “offering alternative products to data centre customers in China.” One of these products is the new “A800,” which the company says “meets the clear tests for export control set by the US government.”
As long as Chinese customers are willing to buy the new A800 instead of the A100 and export restrictions don’t change, NVIDIA’s data centre segment should be able to keep growing, which will be good for the stock and give it another boost.
The third possible catalyst is continuing to buy back shares.
NVIDIA Corporation said during its Q3 FY 2023 earnings call that it has “$8.3 billion left under our share repurchase authorization through December 2023.” NVIDIA already spent more than $9 billion on buying back its shares in the first nine months of fiscal year 2023.
Continued share buybacks will increase NVDA’s future earnings per share and send a message about how management thinks NVIDIA’s stock is undervalued.
In the next section, I will talk about NVIDIA Corporation’s financial situation for the next year.
What Do You Think Will Happen In 2023?NVIDIA is expected to have much better financial results in the calendar year 2023 or the fiscal year 2024. (Feb. 1, 2023, through Jan. 31, 2024).
Sell-side consensus financial figures from S&P Capital IQ show that NVIDIA Corporation’s revenue growth will increase from 0.1% in fiscal 2023 to 11.4% in fiscal 2024. Analysts also think that NVIDIA will improve from a -26.4% drop in non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share in FY 2023 to a +33.8% rise in normalized EPS in FY 2024.
In the last section, I talked about how the gaming segment could turn around as channel inventory clearance nears its end. This is expected to be the most significant growth driver and catalyst for NVIDIA in 2023. NVIDIA’s earnings will grow next year because it will continue to buy back its shares and because its strategy of selling alternative products to Chinese data centre clients will continue to work.
In a nutshell, NVIDIA should speed up growth on the top line and return to positive growth on the bottom line in 2023/2024.
What Do Experts Say About NVIDIA?Wall Street analysts think NVIDIA’s stock could go up by 29% based on the sell-consensus side’s target price of $203.63.
According to data from S&P Capital IQ, NVDA’s average price target of $203.63 is equal to a consensus forward normalized P/E multiple of about 36.3 times for fiscal year 2025.
I don’t think that NVIDIA’s goal of having a P/E multiple in the middle 30s is too high. So, I believe the analysts’ estimates for NVIDIA’s target price and how much it could go up in value are reasonable.
Is It Better To Buy NVIDIA Stock, Sell It, Or Keep It?My advice for NVIDIA stock is still to Buy. Based on its financial outlook for the calendar year 2023/fiscal year 2024 and its upside potential, as shown by the consensus price target, NVIDIA’s stock is undervalued.
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NVIDIA股票预测2023：观看的主要趋势
StéphanieBédard-chateauneuf
2022年11月29日
NVIDIA股票
下一个财政年度NVIDIA（NASDAQ：NVDA）的前景是本文的主要主题。 NVIDIA在明年的一线和正底线增长速度将更快，NVIDIA的股价有很大的上升空间。 这就是为什么我认为您应该购买NVIDIA股票的原因。
要知道的关键数字
NVIDIA Corporation的关键数字，例如其最近的2023财年收入和2023财年第四季度的前瞻性顶级指南，都令人满意，并且主要符合市场的预期。
根据NVDA在其2023财年财务业绩的第三季度新闻稿中，该公司在最近一个季度赚了59.31亿美元。 这比上一季度下降了-12％。 尤其是，数据中心市场的销售额增加了四分之一，而QOQ从游戏市场的销售额下降了-23％。 尽管如此，NVIDIA在第三季度的实际收入仍比该市场共识估计为58.2亿美元高2％。
作为第三季度收益报告的一部分，NVIDIA在2023财政年度第四季度的中点收入预期为60亿美元。这意味着NVIDIA的最高线将在四分之一季度上升1％，下降了21％ 本财政年度最后一季度同比同比百分比。 更重要的是，该公司在第四季度的一流指南仅略有（根据标准普尔资本智商的数据，比分析师在最近的季度报告之前的整体预测。
NVIDIA于2022年11月16日宣布其2023财年财务业绩两周后，其股票表现优于标准普尔500指数（+1.7％）。 这支持了我的信念，即公司对第三和第四季度的最高收入和收入指南要好于投资者的预期。
催化剂要注意什么？
投资者将寻找可能导致NVIDIA股票改变价格的东西。 在本节中，我列出了一些可能导致Nvidia Corporation在下一个财政年度改变的评级。
可能是催化剂的第一件事是，当游戏细分市场再次开始赚钱时，渠道库存恢复正常。 连续两个季度，在2023年第2季度至2023财年第2季度之间，NVIDIA游戏领域的销售量下降了，但有迹象表明情况正在改善。
NVIDIA的游戏部门在2023财年第三季度可以做得更好，但它的表现比市场预期的要好。 在最近一个季度，NVIDIA的游戏部门收入从上季度下降了23％，比上一年下降了51％，至15.74亿美元。 根据S＆P Capital IQ的数据，卖方预计该公司的游戏领域将分别从上一季度和一年下降30％和56％。
NVIDIA还表示，在其2023财年第三季度的收益呼吁中，“渠道库存（用于游戏领域）随着我们退出第四季度（2023财年）的正常水平。” NVIDIA还说：“我们预计，随着我们通过渠道库存校正工作，我们（游戏）收入仍未达到最终需求。”
第二件事可能会有所帮助是NVIDIA将替代产品销售给中国数据中心的策略是否保持良好状态。
NVIDIA业务的数据中心部分同比增长了31％，在最近季度比季度增长了1％。 根据S＆P Capital IQ的数据，这比分析师对整个数据中心细分市场的最高产品的 + +27％和-2％的QOQ增长要好。
NVIDIA在2022年8月31日表示，美国政府“对未来向中国的任何出口施加了新的许可要求，其“ A100和即将到来的H100综合电路”。 华尔街分析师担心NVDA的2023财年数据中心细分市场的表现，因为他们认为对中国客户的新限制会导致NVDA的数据中心收入显着下降。
但是Nvidia已经找到了美国政府制定的新规则的方法。 NVDA在最近的第三季度投资者呼吁中表示，它一直“向中国的数据中心客户提供替代产品”。 这些产品之一是新的“ A800”，该公司表示“符合美国政府设定的出口控制的明确测试”。
只要中国客户愿意购买新的A800而不是A100并且出口限制不会改变，NVIDIA的数据中心部门就应该能够继续增长，这对股票有好处，并给予另一个提升。
第三种可能的催化剂正在继续回购股票。
NVIDIA Corporation在其2023财年第三季度的收入呼吁中表示，其“根据我们的股票回购授权剩下83亿美元，到2023年12月。” NVIDIA在2023年的前九个月中已经花费了超过90亿美元的股票。
持续的股票回购将增加NVDA的未来每股收益，并向管理层认为NVIDIA的股票被低估的信息发送信息。
在下一部分中，我将谈论Nvidia Corporation明年的财务状况。
您认为2023年会发生什么？
NVIDIA预计将在2023年日历年或2024财年的财务业绩更好。（2023年2月1日至2024年1月31日）。
S＆P Capital IQ的卖方共识财务数据表明，NVIDIA Corporation的收入增长将从2023财年的0.1％增长到2024财年的11.4％。分析师还认为，NVIDIA也将从非GAAP调整后的收益下降-26.4％提高 2023财年的每股份额达到2024财年的标准化EPS +33.8％。
在最后一部分中，我讨论了游戏细分市场如何转移，因为渠道库存清除范围即将结束。 预计这将是2023年NVIDIA的最重要的增长动力和催化剂。Nvidia的收益将在明年增长，因为它将继续回购其股票，因为它将替代产品向中国数据中心客户销售替代产品的策略将继续工作。
简而言之，NVIDIA应加快上线的增长，并在2023/2024的底线上恢复正增长。
专家对Nvidia有何评价？
华尔街的分析师认为，根据卖出方面的目标价为203.63美元，NVIDIA的股票可能会增长29％。
根据S＆P Capital IQ的数据，NVDA的平均价格目标为203.63美元，等于2025财政年度的共识归一化P/E倍数约为36.3倍。
我认为NVIDIA在30年代中期拥有市盈率的目标不是太高。 因此，我相信分析师对NVIDIA目标价格的估计以及价值上涨的价值是合理的。
购买NVIDIA股票，出售或保留它更好吗？
我对NVIDIA股票的建议仍在购买。 基于其2023年日历年/2024财年的财务前景及其上涨潜力，如达成目标目标所示，NVIDIA的股票被低估了。
特色图像 - Pexels©Jordan Harrison
[color=rgb(97, 97, 97) !important]Stéphanie Bédard-Chateauneuf
About the author: Stephanie Bedard-Chateauneuf has over four years of experience writing financial content for various websites. Over the years, Stephanie has covered various industries, with a primary focus on consumer stocks, cannabis stocks, tech stocks, and personal finance. This stock lover likes to invest for the long-term. Stephanie has an MBA in finance.
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